Foods are set to become more expensive again. With energy prices now expected to remain high for longer, this will start to show in supermarket and restaurant prices by the end of 2026. For 2027, Rabobank analysts are forecasting food price inflation of 7% (specifically for the Netherlands).

If high oil and gas prices – as expected – persist into 2027, the anticipated cost increase will be too great for the supply chain to absorb. Switching to cheaper products or sales channels is no longer an option for an ever-growing group of consumers. The dilemma of higher prices or lower volumes will therefore – once again – lead to heated price negotiations later this year between producers, supermarket chains and foodservice companies.

The current spikes in energy prices are not immediately reflected in grocery prices. Much energy consumption occurs relatively early in the supply chain – for example, in fertilisers, animal feed or transport – and it takes some time for the final consumer products to reach the shelves. Inventories and forward contracts are also cushioning the impact for the time being. If high energy prices persist long enough, this will change.

The expected average energy prices for 2027 are roughly 35% higher than the price levels for oil and gas in 2025. The combination of thin margins in the sector and heavy reliance on energy makes it virtually impossible for the sector to fully absorb price rises of this magnitude. Passing on the costs to the consumer seems the most obvious solution.

Food inflation will peak early in 2027, as the results of price negotiations become apparent towards the end of this year.