A study commissioned by the DLG (German Agricultural Society) examines two demand scenarios for milk alternatives in Germany. In the conservative scenario, the share of alternative products rises from 7.4 per cent in 2023 to 12.5 per cent in 2035; in the dynamic scenario, it rises to 25 per cent. For the analysis, the authors from the DLG project team assume a constant demand for dairy products over the entire period, met by both cow’s milk and alternative products. The more alternatives are consumed, the fewer cow’s milk products are purchased.
The extent to which the growing demand for alternatives affects German milk production therefore depends largely on whether dairies and dairy farms can offset reduced domestic sales through additional exports. Both demand scenarios are analysed under two hypothetical trade scenarios: If the lower domestic demand is fully offset by exports, domestic production remains unaffected. However, if the reduced demand for cow’s milk cannot be offset by exports, production in Germany will fall by 5.5 per cent in the conservative scenario and 19.4 per cent in the dynamic scenario by 2035, compared with the 2023 level.

Photo: DLG / Wolfgang_Eckert_auf_Pixabay.jpg