Climate change could significantly affect Europe’s dairy industry, with annual heat-related milk production losses projected to increase from approximately 4.5 million metric tonnes to 12.2 million metric tonnes by 2050 under a high-warming scenario.

The research highlights how regions historically characterised by favourable grassland conditions and limited exposure to extreme heat could face increasing pressure on animal welfare, milk yields and production reliability. Although the changes are not expected to displace Europe’s major milk-producing regions, they could weaken their competitiveness as climate-related production constraints become more pronounced.

According to the study, the impact of rising temperatures will vary considerably across European dairy-producing regions, depending on local warming patterns and differences in herd composition.

Northern Italy, southern Germany, France and Spain are among the major dairy-producing areas expected to experience a marked increase in potential heat-related milk losses. These regions could face growing difficulties in maintaining consistent milk production as higher temperatures affect cattle comfort, feed intake and overall productivity.

For dairy processors, the consequences could extend beyond reduced raw milk availability. Lower milk collection volumes could result in underutilisation of processing facilities, increasing operational costs and putting additional pressure on the competitiveness of affected dairy businesses.