DairyNZ agronomists are warning the New Zealand dairy industry of significant economic and production-related consequences resulting from an exceptionally strong El Niño event, which is expected to persist until autumn 2027.

Expected economic impacts:
Break-even milk price: approx. NZ$9.07/kg milk solids
Production costs: rising to NZ$6.78/kg DM
Comparison: Fonterra’s current forecast stands at NZ$9.25/kg DM, but will be updated on 24 September.
Expected production losses
In the event of a strong El Niño: −2.1 % total production
In the event of a very strong El Niño: −3.3 %
North Island: highest risk of significant declines

Still unclear:
Impact on export markets
Changes in global milk prices

Fig.: Publicdomainpictures