Over the next five years, cow’s milk production in Italy will increase by 10-15%, with an average annual rate of change of 2-3%, which is likely to be more pronounced in the first years and will continue until 2030, before levelling off in the following decades. This is the forecast for cow’s milk production in Italy prepared by farm economy research institute Ismea. As a result of the greater availability of domestic raw materials, dairy imports from abroad are expected to fall by 8% in volume terms, given the decline in domestic demand. According to Ismea, exports will increase significantly over the next five years with a growth trend of +25 %.
The Ismea report also includes estimates of national cow’s milk production: Italy will reach theoretical self-sufficiency in the raw material in a few years (today it is 80 %). Over the last five years, cows’ milk production in Italy has increased significantly and will exceed 12.6 million tonnes in 2020 (+13.4% compared to 2015, +4.4% between 2020 and 2019). Most of the production increase took place in the northern Italian regions (Lombardy +19%, Emilia Romagna +15%, Veneto +6.0%, Piedmont +15%), but also in some southern regions (Puglia +12%, Sicily and Basilicata +11%, Calabria +17%).
While milk deliveries increased (+13% in the last five years), the farm-gate price for milk increased by 3% on average between 2015 and 2020.
