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May/June 2021 ¦ international-dairy.com · 37
prices on the dairy market, so there are no guarantees that
this timeline is final," commented a source in the Russian
dairy industry who wished not to be named. "The project
makes no sense to the industry since counterfeit has
already been defeated – there is no need in additional control
measures, especially so expensive ones," he added.
Domestic food prices indeed seem to be a matter of
concern for the Russian government. In the last days of
2020, following the order from Russian President Vladimir
Putin, the Russian Parliament adopted a law changing
Russian trade rules to allow the government to establish
price limits on basic foodstuffs when prices have risen by
10% in one month. Previous law allowed for such interventions
only after a 30% monthly rise.
In the previous few months, the price for some categories
of dairy products has been seen steadily increasing, which
was primarily associated with the skyrocketing grain, and
consequently, feed prices.
It is yet to be seen how the upcoming tagging could change
the price situation on the market. According to Soyuzmoloko,
the prices are set to rise by nearly 10%, since companies
would simply have no choice but to place the additional
financial burden upon their customers, at least partly.
The Russian perspective technologies development center –
the government agency authorized to supervise the tagging
project – estimated that the overall cost of the reform for
the Russian dairy industry is much lower than the industry's
estimations, at around Rub4 billion ($60 million), so the production
costs should not dramatically rise.
The International Consumer Unions Confederation supported
the government assessment, claiming that the dairy
industry's production costs would be limited to only 1% due
to the tagging project.
Expanding international trade
In 2020, the Russian dairy product import was the highest
since the introduction of the food embargo. The country
imported 316,000 tons of cheese, 14% up compared to
the previous year, and 442,000 tons of milk, cream, and
fermented products, by 16% higher than in 2019, the
Russian Federal Customs Service estimated.
Growing supplies from Belarus was the main factor
driving the Russian dairy import. Belarus accounted for
87.3% of all imports in 2020, according to Soyuzmoloko.
However, closed borders contributed to a sharp rise in
domestic demand for premium dairy products, and so for
products from far abroad too.
According to Maxim Polyakov, general director of
Russian cheese distributor Foodland, cheese import was on
the rise because wealthy Russians stayed home or moved
to the Russian resorts during the holiday season instead of
visiting European countries.
A research conducted by the Russian newspaper Kommersant
showed that suppliers from other countries took
advantage of the growing demand for premium dairy
products on the Russian market in 2020.
One of Russian largest food retailers, X5 Retail Group,
reported that its product range was expanded by dairy
products from Argentina and Switzerland. Another Russian
retail company, Vkusville, increased cheese import by 37%
compared to the previous year, purchasing more cheese in
Switzerland, Argentina, Uruguay, and Serbia.
Azbuka Vkusa increased its dairy import by 25%,
primarily at the expense of Switzerland cheese, the company
reported. Some market participants also noticed growing dairy
products import from New Zealand.
The sharp rise in dairy import concerns Russian dairy
producers, and could enhance competition on the market,
said Artem Belov, chairman of Soyuzmoloko.
However, not only import but also export is growing. In
2020, dairy exports increased by 25%, and in 2021 a
further growth of around 20% is anticipated, he said. The
biggest sales markets are Kazakhstan, Belarus, Mongolia, and
Abkhazia. However, there are some big export contracts
in the pipeline. The Russian agricultural holding Rusagro
is mulling plans to begin exporting milk powder to China,
while Comos Group has recently sent the first shipment of
milk to the U.S.
In 2020, Comos Group increased its dairy export 10 times.
Russian dairy companies are taking advantage of the Ruble's
weakening exchange rate. This factor is promising to make
local dairy companies more competitive in the international
arena this year.
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